| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 2026 | L | Eastern Michigan | 17-28 | 1283.3 | +148.6 | 1431.9 | 21.0% |
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | W | Mississippi Valley State | 52-0 | 1283.3 | +148.6 | 1431.9 | 90.3% |
| 2 | Sep 13 2026 | L | Fresno State | 3-49 | 1431.9 | -114.7 | 1317.2 | 39.5% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | L | North Dakota State | 10-31 | 1317.2 | -19.4 | 1297.8 | 13.3% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | L | Massachusetts | 6-35 | 1297.8 | -39.5 | 1258.3 | 44.3% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Bowling Green | 10-38 | 1266.1 | -19.5 | 1246.6 | 37.8% |